- 15:25 – 15:55
Navigating Through a Correction in the Semiconductor Market
- What are IDC’s expectations for revenue growth this year and 2024? Year over year growth is expected to resume by Q4’23 but the total semiconductor market is expected to decline in high single digits.
- Current State of the market: Market correction is well underway and will continue throughout this year on a revenue and unit basis. The worst of the storm for our industry is expected to be from Q3’22 to Q2’23.
Inventory correction began in 1H’22, accelerated by the second half and will continue for the next couple of quarters driving down utilization rates and revenues.
- DRAM and NAND is experiencing a prolonged contraction. How are suppliers adjusting to the large inventory and bit growth decline? Will Samsung cutback like the other suppliers to balance the market?
- Our forecast scenario factors a moderate global recession that begins in Q4’22/Q1’23 (4-6 quarters). Eurozone is assumed to already be in recession and China remains weak for most of this year. Capital spending cutbacks reach 20% for the industry with higher percentage cutbacks and pushouts in memory. Logic will also reevaluate capacity expansion plans as utilization falls and projects are reevaluated.
- Long term IDC believes the market will grow at a CAGR of 5% over the next 5 to 7 years with automotive and industrial outperforming the overall industry with increasing silicon content. Technology spending as a percentage of GDP remains less than 1% but should more than triple over the next seven years. We expect 2024 and 2025 will be a strong recovery period for semiconductors but WFE likely remains down in 2024 after a strong three-year cycle.
Mario Morales is the group vice president of IDC’s enabling technologies, semiconductor, storage, and DataSphere research.
He is responsible for in-depth analysis, evaluation of emerging markets and trends, forecasting, and research of major semiconductor industry segments such as embedded and intelligent systems, wireless, personal computing, networking and cloud infrastructure, automotive electronics, and AI semiconductors.
Mr. Morales is an accomplished program vice president, manager, and industry expert with over 25 years of experience in building a multinational top-tier consulting, sales, and research team and driving a set of established businesses. Solid experience in managing strategic partnerships and advisory services with IDC’s largest multinational clients. Strong analytical, strategic planning skills, and managing complex projects involving strong collaboration across geographies, functional groups, and business units. Proven leadership skills and instrumental at establishing research and business KPIs.
Mr. Morales is a trusted advisor to leading high tech company executives, financial investors, and bankers on market landscape and direction, product and technology positioning, competitive benchmarking, M&A, HW, and SW technology, and brand health and sustainability. Established relationships with technology suppliers including Intel, Samsung, TSMC, Qualcomm, Huawei, HP, AMD, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Facebook, TI, Micron, UMC, SoftBank, ARM, NXP, and others.
Mr. Morales is the leading advisor and expert analyst for IDC’s largest Wall Street clients including investment banking, VC’s, and mutual and hedge funds across every major financial region.
Over his career, Mr. Morales has authored and co-authored over 240 reports and studies in the area of semiconductors, mobile, PC, wireless, embedded, IoT, and IT marketplace. His team is responsible for some of the most interesting and evolving tech in our industry including coverage of microprocessors, accelerated computing, storage, memory, sensors and connectivity. His team has been responsible for initiating coverage of emerging technologies for IDC, and driving new research business practices, and creating leading industry market models in DRAM, NAND, Embedded processors and controllers, AI ML architectures, cellular baseband modems, WiFi, cellular broadband, digital consumer, foundry, EMS, and intelligent systems.
His career includes past positions with NEC Electronics and Dataquest.
- B.S. in Finance and Accounting from San Jose State University
- Fluent in English and Spanish
- Frequent presenter and advisor to CEOs and executive teams across his portfolio of clients
- Strong reputation as an advisor and industry expert on Wall Street
- IDC executive analyst for Intel and Qualcomm
- Frequent speaker, presenter, and moderator at IDC Directions events in Asia and semiconductor industy conferences including ISS, GSA, CASPA, CISES, and SEMI
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